The US-Iran conflict: Insights from the Islamic State (IS)

 

Alessandra Ciffo

In the Islamic State (IS) official newspaper al-Naba issue n 429, released on February 8th, 2024, It observed an article regarding the ongoing tension relations causing the conflict between US-Iranian, which is culminating in the U.S. military retaliatory strikes on Hashd Shaabi [1], and pro-Iranian militia proxies including Iranian al Quds Forces [2], and  Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Forces (IRGC) [3]  members and targets both, in different area in Syria and Iraq on early February 03^rd in retaliation for an armed assault attributed to an Iran-backed militia that killed 3 U.S. members.

As the article reported, besides the long cooperation between the two countries in preventing and limiting IS operativeness and influence in the region, a potential escalation into a war is likely to involve Washington and Tehran, even though they are aware of the impact that a military confrontation would have in the area, which could likely cause damage weakening both sides likely permitting to the IS groups to exploit the overall insecurity and discontent among the population affected by a lack of financial and food resources and the rise of criminality and the internally displaced persons and refugees, be able to reach a vast number of people straighten itself, operationally and ideologically.

Among the IS supporters and militants, there is the belief/idea that the strikes and military operations carried out “tout court” against pro-Iranian forces without a deep Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) [4] evaluation of the targets without any wide analysis of all the potential casualties and damages resulted from the conflict scenario besides of being “extremely doubtful,” could likely weaken both sides and their forces took away expensively energy in terms of time, strength, and resources instead of focus and using them for counterintelligence and counterterrorism operation for “fight” Islamic State and other terrorist individuals and/or groups.

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[1] The Hashd Shaabi, also known as Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) and the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), is an Iraqi state-sponsored coalition organization created in 2014 in response to the Islamic State (IS) rise. It's formed by different militias, primarily Shiite Muslim groups, but also including Sunni, Christian, and Yazidi.

[2] Defined as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by the US due to its alleged involvement in terrorism and attacks against US interests, the Iranian Quds Force, formally known as the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is a specialized unit within the Iranian military known for its unconventional warfare and foreign operations. The militia has been involved in conflicts across the Middle East, including Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, in support of respectively Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

[3] The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a military and political force with its own army, navy, air force, special forces, and intelligence branches, separated from the regular army. IRGC was founded in Iran after the 1979 Islamic Revolution to protect the Shiite ruling system. It responds directly to the Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It’s also being designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by the US.

[4] ISTAR is a well-established military concept that was gradually developed during the 20th century with the primary goal of collecting, analyzing, and delivering specific intelligence and information to all levels of decision-makers. Its purpose is to support the planning and conduct of operations as effectively and efficiently as possible. ISTAR encompasses 4 main activities: Intelligence (collecting information through different sources like HUMINT, SIGINT, etc); Surveillance (constant monitoring and observing the enemies' activities and movements, in general using drones, ground sensors, or electronic surveillance); Target Acquisition (through data processing and intelligence analysis identifying specific targets for military operations); Reconnaissance (gathering information of specific area to understand the terrain, enemy positions, and potential threats involving ground patrols, aerial reconnaissance, or special forces missions).