Islamic State and Jihadism Rising Terror: the risk of a humanitarian and security Crisis in Northern Mozambique

Alessandra Ciffo

 

The Islamic State (IS) claimed two new machine guns armed assaults on February 26th against the Monothi and Miog Christian villages in Chiure District Cabo Delgado, Northern Mozambique, by Mozambique State, which led to the escaping of a few Christians, the destruction of many government building, houses, including one belong to the village’s leader and churches.

 

On February 24th, another machine gun attack was officially reported by IS Central in Chiure District on the Magia Christian village, claiming to burn 2 churches and around 140 houses.

 

Moreover, a couple of days before, on February 20th, in Ukwa village, the same modus operandi was conducted in which the mujahideen also clashed with a Mozambican Defense Armed Forces (FADM) patrol, who were attempting to ambush them during their raid to the Christian village, instead, the mujahideen were able to seize part of the village properties.

The number of refugees in Cabo Delgado province[1] is significantly and quickly rising[2] due to the recent increase of the operativeness and violent attacks, especially of the Islamic State (IS) in different Districts, including in  Macomia and  Chiure[3], which is very likely to drive the Mozambican government to declare the state of emergency in Cabo Delgado. A series of partners have already temporarily suspended activities and evacuated personnel.

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[1]  According to the 20th Mobility Tracking Assessment (DTM) of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), only 55% are hosted by the local population,  while the rest live in 190 displacement sites.

[2] As stated by government authorities data, Nampula Province recently received more than 20,000 displaced people.

[3] It has been reporting there were already over 9,000 Internally Displaced People (IDPs) in the district.

IS Mozambique Province: Terrorism and Insecurity Risk Escalating in Mozambique

 

Alessandra Ciffo

 

Through Amaq Agency[1], the Islamic State (IS) published a photo report with 24 images showing part of a series of armed attacks against different Christian villages, including Nkiora, Kitivahola, Muerota, Mazizi, and  Nakoza, in Chiure district Cabo Delgado, conducted from February 12th to February 16th, by Mozambique State, which led to the killing and wounding of various Christians, the destruction of many houses and churches, and the escape of more than 13 thousand of others.

As reported in the previous article[2], besides the military operations toward Christian villages and people, the Mozambique Province mujahideen are continuing to visit Muslims in the district holding meetings and lectures about religious and ideological beliefs to the local population.

 

On February 22nd, in Al-Naba newspaper issue 431, the IS released an infographic showing how the raids and armed assaults have been escalating within 52 days in different locations within Cabo Delgado province, including Macomia: “ 27 diverse attacks, in which 6 different vehicles were destroyed ( likely from four-wheel drives to other vehicles), 70 among Mozambican Security Forces and Christians were killed and wounded, and 500 between houses, churches, government building for Christians, and included 3 Mozambican Army positions were destroyed.”

Moreover, as represented in the image above, the mujahideen attacks directly caused severe consequences across various sectors of the society in the Mozambican region, involving significant worsening and losses on the economic systems, with a sharp increase in migration, a large exodus from the villages, and a rise in insecurity. The Security Forces, including the international companies localized in the areas, have demonstrated to be ineffective in guaranteeing protection and ensuring security due to the IS militants' success in stopping them.

The insecurity status in Mozambique, especially in Capo Delgado province, has dramatically arisen due to the increase of criminality and IS military operativeness, which is clearly known to both the National authorities and the international forces in the area, such as the French embassy in Mozambique who has advised the French citizens to not travel to the cities of Mocimboa da Praia, Palma, and Pemba, as well as other settlements in the province of Cabo Delgado, knowing to be IS military operations’ red zone. 

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[1] The Islamic State’s official media

 [2] https://nazarbonjuk.blogspot.com/2024/02/is-mozambique-state-and-armed-assault.html

“And Fight all the Polytheists" : new IS Central video of Wilayah Khurasan (ISKP) military operativeness in Afghanistan

 

Alessandra Ciffo

On February 18th, IS Central published a more than 55 minutes[1] videotape, entitled “And Fight all the Polytheists," of Wilayah Khurasan (ISKP)[2] about the military operations conducted in Afghanistan from mid-2021 to 2023 against the Afghan Taliban and its Security Forces due to the détente and friendly ties to various countries including China, Russia, India, Iran, that are accused among the mujahideen and IS supporters to have hostile attitude and politics against Muslims; the delay of the Sharia law; and the spread of sectarianism in the country through Taliban religious scholars.

The majority of the footage reported in the video are scenes from the ISKP armed activities conducted throughout the years targeting both Taliban security forces and Intelligence informants[3], in which some shown in the video could likely be referring to the assassination of  Taliban religious leader Sheikh Rahimullah Haqqani, the Maulavi Mujib Ar-Rahmani[4] likely as a postponed claiming;

and also “foreigners” including as shown by exclusive low-quality scenes of the IS raid on the Longan Hotel in Kabul in which some foreign citizens, most likely Chinese, were killed, on December 12th,2022. In the video, a few clips have been observed showing one of the 2 attackers, Abdul Jabbar, managing to escape. After a couple of days, on January 2nd, 2022, ISKP declared him as the perpetrator of a suicide bombing conducted the day before near Kabul military airport.

This 55-minute video propagandistic material underlines the IS threat in Afghanistan and the risks posed not only to the country's National Security but also as a risk and severe threat to the US interest and national security in the area. 

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[1] It represents one of the longest videos recently released.

[2] The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) is one of the official “wilayah” (province) recognized by the IS Central covering Central and South Asia.

[3] As stated by various attacks recently claimed by ISKP, including the Improvised Explosive Device (IED) against a bus in the sixteenth district of Kabul carrying security forces in the Polcharkhi prison (10 killed and wounded) on January 9th,2024; the alleged interrogation and killing of a Taliban Intelligence informant in Savukai district, Kunar province, in mid-January 2024.

[4] Haqqani was killed in a suicide blast in August 2022. Maulavi Mujib Ar-Rahmani, an Afghan mullah, and cleric, was killed in a suicide bombing in early September 2022, both allegedly killed by ISKP.

IS Mozambique State and the armed assault threat against Christian villages and communities in Cabo Delgado province

 

Alessandra Ciffo

Islamic State (IS) claimed an armed attack conducted on February 16th by Mozambique State[1] on Nkiora, a Christian village in the Shiur area of Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, in which a Christian was killed and a church, 24 houses,  and a school were burned.

 

The attacks against Christians, like militias, villages, and civilians have risen lately, such as the attack in Chai village against Christian militias, or the kidnapping and killing of a Christian in Litamabda village, near Pemba city, Cabo Delgado, or again a similar situation happened to another Christian in Macomia County, Cabo Delgado,  both in early February.

 

Since late January 2024, there has been monitoring the IS in strengthening its power through propaganda and ideology among the Mozambican population through its  visits to Muslim villages in the Macomia District, Capo Delgado, such as Darumba village, taking a lecture for the locals titled “the importance of establishing Sharia laws, waging jihad and other religious provisions.”

 

Moreover, the IS reported taking various meetings with the Muslim population in several villages in the Macomia district, Cabo Delgado province, including Phangan, Nakotoko, and Mukojo, where the mujahideen held religious and political discussions with the local population, like the importance of following Islamic practices and beliefs, dividing people along religious lines, and warning against any assistance to government forces. In a few situations as stated by the local administration of some villages of Kisanga district, IS militants passed through these areas without causing damage to anyone and appeared open to dialogue with local residents, who would more likely accept its administration, control, and “protection” likely affecting the National forces authority,  like Mozambican army, which, according to various IS supporters and militants, “they are afraid to clash directly with IS Mozambique State and IS fighters in the area, retreating or fleeing.”

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[1] One of the “wilayat” (provinces) of the IS officially recognized. 

The US-Iran conflict: Insights from the Islamic State (IS)

 

Alessandra Ciffo

In the Islamic State (IS) official newspaper al-Naba issue n 429, released on February 8th, 2024, It observed an article regarding the ongoing tension relations causing the conflict between US-Iranian, which is culminating in the U.S. military retaliatory strikes on Hashd Shaabi [1], and pro-Iranian militia proxies including Iranian al Quds Forces [2], and  Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Forces (IRGC) [3]  members and targets both, in different area in Syria and Iraq on early February 03^rd in retaliation for an armed assault attributed to an Iran-backed militia that killed 3 U.S. members.

As the article reported, besides the long cooperation between the two countries in preventing and limiting IS operativeness and influence in the region, a potential escalation into a war is likely to involve Washington and Tehran, even though they are aware of the impact that a military confrontation would have in the area, which could likely cause damage weakening both sides likely permitting to the IS groups to exploit the overall insecurity and discontent among the population affected by a lack of financial and food resources and the rise of criminality and the internally displaced persons and refugees, be able to reach a vast number of people straighten itself, operationally and ideologically.

Among the IS supporters and militants, there is the belief/idea that the strikes and military operations carried out “tout court” against pro-Iranian forces without a deep Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) [4] evaluation of the targets without any wide analysis of all the potential casualties and damages resulted from the conflict scenario besides of being “extremely doubtful,” could likely weaken both sides and their forces took away expensively energy in terms of time, strength, and resources instead of focus and using them for counterintelligence and counterterrorism operation for “fight” Islamic State and other terrorist individuals and/or groups.

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[1] The Hashd Shaabi, also known as Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) and the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), is an Iraqi state-sponsored coalition organization created in 2014 in response to the Islamic State (IS) rise. It's formed by different militias, primarily Shiite Muslim groups, but also including Sunni, Christian, and Yazidi.

[2] Defined as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by the US due to its alleged involvement in terrorism and attacks against US interests, the Iranian Quds Force, formally known as the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is a specialized unit within the Iranian military known for its unconventional warfare and foreign operations. The militia has been involved in conflicts across the Middle East, including Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, in support of respectively Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

[3] The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a military and political force with its own army, navy, air force, special forces, and intelligence branches, separated from the regular army. IRGC was founded in Iran after the 1979 Islamic Revolution to protect the Shiite ruling system. It responds directly to the Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It’s also being designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by the US.

[4] ISTAR is a well-established military concept that was gradually developed during the 20th century with the primary goal of collecting, analyzing, and delivering specific intelligence and information to all levels of decision-makers. Its purpose is to support the planning and conduct of operations as effectively and efficiently as possible. ISTAR encompasses 4 main activities: Intelligence (collecting information through different sources like HUMINT, SIGINT, etc); Surveillance (constant monitoring and observing the enemies' activities and movements, in general using drones, ground sensors, or electronic surveillance); Target Acquisition (through data processing and intelligence analysis identifying specific targets for military operations); Reconnaissance (gathering information of specific area to understand the terrain, enemy positions, and potential threats involving ground patrols, aerial reconnaissance, or special forces missions).